When and How will the corona Virus crisis End?
The whole world has almost stopped due to Corona virus infection.
The places where there used to be a huge crowd daily are now starting to feel haunted. There is a ban on travel from school to college, ban on gathering of people. Every person in the world is affected in some way or the other.
It is an unmatched global response against a disease. But questions are arising that where will all this end and people will be able to return to their normal lives.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson believes that Britain will conquer it in the next 12 weeks and the country will ‘eradicate the corona virus’.
Even though the corona virus cases may decrease in the next three months, but still we will be far away from rooting it out.
It will take a long time to finish, it is estimated that it may take a year too.
However, it is also clear that the policy of shutting everything down is not possible for the larger sections for a long time. Social and economic losses are destructive.
Countries of the world now want ‘exit strategy’ so that restrictions can be lifted and everything can be normal.
But it is also true that the corona virus is not going to disappear.
If you remove the restriction, the virus will return and the cases will increase rapidly.
“Our biggest problem is the policy of how to overcome it,” says Professor Mark Woolhouse, professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh.
“The exit strategy is not there with any country of the world”.
Corona virus is the biggest scientific and social challenge of this time.
There are only three ways to get out of this crisis.
- Vaccine
- Development of immunity in people to avoid infection
- Change our society or behavior permanently
Each of these pathways will reduce the virus’s ability to spread.
How long will it take to make the vaccine available?
A vaccine gives immunity to a body due to which it does not fall ill.
Developing immunity to around 60% of the population from disease is called herd immunity so that no virus becomes an epidemic.
This week a vaccine of the Corona virus was tested on a person in the United States. In this test, the researchers were allowed to do it directly on humans instead of using it on animals.
Research on the corona virus vaccine is happening at an unprecedented pace, but there is no guarantee that it will succeed, or whether it can be given to everyone globally.
If all goes well then it is estimated that in 12 to 18 months its vaccine can be made. This will be a very long time of waiting when the world is already facing such restrictions.
Professor Woolhouse says that waiting for a vaccine should not be named a strategy and it is not a strategy.
Can natural immunity arise in humans?
The UK’s strategy at this time is to allow the spread of the virus infection to a minimum so that the hospitals are not burdened because the ICU beds are not empty at this time.
Once its cases are reduced, some restrictions will be relaxed, but if these matters continue to grow like this, then more restrictions will have to be imposed.
Britain’s Chief Scientific Advisor Sir Patrick Wellens says that it is not possible to ban things completely.
Being infected with the corona virus may inadvertently increase the immunity of people, but it may take many years to happen.
Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London says, “We are talking about suppressing the infection at one level. Hopefully people will get infected at a small level.”
But the question here is, how long will this immunity last?
Because other corona viruses with symptoms of fever also attack those with weak immunity, and those who have previously been exposed to the corona virus are more likely to be infected by the new corona virus.
What are the other routes?
Professor Woolhouse says, “The third option is to change our behavior forever, so that the level of infection remains low.”
These may include some measures that have been implemented. It may also include some stringent tests and procedures to pre-isolate patients.
Professor Woolhouse says, “We had adopted the process of identifying patients beforehand and finding people in contact with them, but it did not work.”
Other strategies may also include developing medications for Covid-19 infectious disease.
It can be used on people who have symptoms of it to prevent the spread of infection.
Or there may be a way that patients should be treated in the hospital so that it becomes less fatal. With this, this crisis can also be faced by increasing the number of beds of ICU.
When a corresponded asked Professor Chris Witty, the UK’s chief medical adviser, what strategy he had to get out of this crisis, he said, “Clearly only a vaccine can be taken out of it and hopefully it will happen as soon as possible and science will come out with some result”.
