2020 US Presidential Election: What is at stake for India?
The dramatic change in just three months has exposed the mood of American politics, which cannot be anticipated. And this is happening at a time when India and the rest of the world is going in which direction, no one has any idea
When US President Donald Trump visited India in February this year, then he was at the peak of politics. America’s economy looked healthy. Unemployment had reduced considerably, and the US Senate had recently released him from allegations of misuse of office and obstruction in the way of Congress.
However, after only three months, the entire scene seems changed. Due to the global epidemic of Kovid-19, more than one hundred and forty thousand people have died in America alone. Unemployment in the country has reached a record level. And, after the killing of African-American black American George Floyd by the Minneapolis police, protests erupted in more than 100 cities in the United States.
Nobody had any idea of the dramatic changes in the political landscape of America in the last three months. These sudden changes reveal a mood of American politics that cannot be anticipated. Right now the world is standing at such a turn that no one knows what will happen next. The same thing can be said in the context of India. With all these things, it becomes necessary that the elections of the President and Parliament of America to be held in November this year should be carefully assessed.
How did the last four years go
In 2016, Donald Trump became President by defeating Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton. This change of power of America gave rise to many uncertainties in front of India. The first question was that what will the US take now with India on trade, immigrant issues, investment and technology. The second thing was what the US strategy would be regarding the relationship with China. Will the Trump administration negotiate, compete, cooperate with China or will the situation of doubt persist. This topic was particularly important for India. Because America’s strategy for China was going to have an impact not only on India but on the whole world. The third big question was how President Trump takes a stand on terrorism. Especially with regard to Afghanistan and Pakistan. The fourth important thing for India was that the US is going to give importance to global institutions. And what will be the impact of US policy on India’s membership and activism in these organizations.
Due to the attitude of the Trump administration and India’s relations with America on all matters, it was ensured that either the two countries would increase mutual cooperation on these subjects or it would at least compensate for the earlier losses. The trump administration adopted the strategic policy of the free Indo-Pacific region, the main reason was the relationship with China. This has benefited India in many ways. As the bilateral defense cooperation between the US and India increased and coordination between the two countries on strategic subjects also improved. The Trump administration overcame the legal hurdles in India’s way of acquiring high technology. It started only when Obama was president. Donald Trump worked to push it further. Coordination
between India and the United States has also improved on multilateral organizations and on the Afghanistan front. There is no doubt that some difficulties have arisen in the relations between America and India regarding Pakistan. Because, America has been following the policy of weighing India and Pakistan with the same scales. Revolutionary changes could not be brought about due to confrontation in the US Parliament on the issue of immigrants. At the same time, when it comes to trade, the Trump government took a direct target due to India’s high trade tax rates. Nevertheless, despite the confrontation on the issue of commerce, the total trade trump between the two countries has continued to grow throughout the administration’s tenure. At the same time, the trade deficit has also reduced in favor of India.
However, two intricacies later emerged in the relationship between India and America. The first was the strict policy of the Trump administration towards Iran. It began with the US unilaterally separating itself from the nuclear deal with Iran. This agreement, called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was signed by Trump’s predecessor Barack Obama. America’s re-ban on Iran had a direct impact on India’s energy security. The second complicated issue between India and America came up with Russia. The US Congress has slammed efforts to improve Trump’s relations with Russia. The law made by the US Parliament for this was called Countering American Advertisers Throw Sanctions (CAATSA). Under this, the US threatened to ban those countries, which make big defense agreements with Russia. India is Russia’s largest overseas customer for defense products exports. After the enactment of the law of the US Parliament, it seemed that India is a potential target of this law. Along with this, a change was seen in US policy under the rule of a trump. Donald Trump is not interested in the internal affairs of other countries. It benefited India whether the issue of controversial Citizens Amendment Act or change of removal of Article 370 of the Constitution from Jammu and Kashmir, America’s reaction is very It was not aggressive.
On the whole, Trump’s winning the election had a major impact on nine major issues of India-US relations. All these issues will be at stake in the November 2020 election. Talking about the strategic aspect, China, Russia, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran will be very important in the US policy regarding the Middle East. Talking about bilateral relations, trade, immigration, investment, technology and values between the US and India will be very important.
Republican vs. Democratic Party Preferences
If Democratic Party candidate Joe Biden wins the US presidential election of November 2020, it will bring relief to India on many issues. The relations between the two countries will not only be more structural and stable during the Biden administration. Rather, Trump’s impatience of the trade deficit, insistence on reducing the number of illegal immigrants, and policies to isolate Iran will be less likely to prioritize the US. There is no doubt that if Donald Trump is elected president again, he will tighten his stance on the issue of Iran, along with stopping immigrants, re-balancing trade. This will make India’s situation more uncomfortable. In addition, if the Democratic Party candidate wins, the new president will re-emphasize another major issue of cooperation with India i.e. climate change, green energy and sustainable development. The Trump administration has kept these issues in abeyance.
However, the victory of the Democratic Party candidate will raise concerns on many other issues for India. If Biden becomes president, once again the US government will try to keep India and Pakistan in South Asia in a status. However, this will not be the situation like 1990. But, after Biden came to power, the leftist faction of the Democratic Party can be vocal in criticizing India for Citizenship Amendment Act and Section 370 from Jammu and Kashmir.
As for other topics, such as investment and technology sharing issues, the impact of the 2020 US elections on India will be much less clear. The most important of all these topics will be what will be the policy of America regarding China. Donald Trump had waged a trade war with China, which shocked China. Apart from trade, Trump has taken many such steps which reduce the close between the economies of America and China. It also includes the subject of technical transfer through students. Along with this, Trump has also separated the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the World Health Organization. However, these steps of America are being severely criticized. The Democratic Party has also criticized the Trump administration for cutting scientific research and development funds. Because only with the development of new technology, America will be in a better position to compete with China. By the way, the idea of seeing China as a rival has increased in both the parties of America. But, there are still differences between the Republican and Democratic parties on how to compete with China. Apart from this, there are many American experts in national security, human rights and intelligence community who have been advocating to increase cooperation and coordination between China and America.
This means that Trump will win in the November 2020 election, or Joe Biden will bring good opportunities for India and some difficulties will also arise. Despite having a good rapport with Donald Trump, we can gauge the difficulties on the issue of immigrants. Even though Trump was quite impressed with his tour of India. But, if they win the elections, then these challenges will come before India. At the same time, if Biden wins the election, then there is bound to be stability and candor in US policy regarding India. However, it is also possible to return to the traditional US stand on many subjects.
It is too early to predict
It would be foolish to predict the US presidential election three months in advance. It is almost certain that Joe Biden will get popular votes. Because the popularity ratings of Trump are constantly falling. And out of the last seven presidential elections, only the candidates of the Democratic Party have received more public votes. But, winning the electoral college is more important and it is a different challenge. Who will be the next President of America, it will not be decided by more than 50 states of the country. It may be that only seven states together decide who will rule America for the next four years. Trump hopes he will maintain his dominance in traditional strongholds of the Republican Party, such as Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. Apart from this, they also hope to win in the swing state ie Florida and Ohio. And, in 2016, he may have won a surprise victory in at least one of the three states called Pennsylvania Democratic strongholds, Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin.
Generally, the current presidents have an edge in elections. Otherwise, the competition between the candidates of the Republican and Democratic Party remains equal. However, the last three presidential elections in the US have given rise to uncertainty. In 2008, John McCain of the Republican Party was leading in August.
However, the financial crisis in September benefited Democratic Party candidate Barack Obama. Similarly, Obama had a good lead over Mitt Romney of the Republican Party in the 2012 election. However, on the basis of the first discussion on TV before the election, Romney had reduced Obama’s lead significantly. At the same time, there were signs of Hillary Clinton’s victory in the 2016 presidential election till the last day. These recent indications of the US presidential election indicate that it is too early to predict the outcome of the presidential election until both parties hold their own conference later this year.
Do not make the mistake of forgetting the US Parliament
After all, the most important thing is that due to the entire focus on the presidential election, people often forget that the elections to the US Parliament are going to be held in November itself. In these elections, elections are being held in all the seats of the lower house of the US Parliament, the House of Representatives. These elections are held every two years. There is every hope that the Democratic Party will be able to retain its majority in the lower house of Parliament.
But, the election of the Senate, the upper house of the US Parliament, will be more important. If the Democratic Party wins six out of seven seats in a close contest (Arizona, Colorado, Maine, Michigan, Montana, North Carolina and Georgia), they will get a majority in the upper house of the US parliament. With this, the Democratic Party will control both houses of Parliament. And they will be able to fully control the legislative functioning. Even if Trump wins the election, the Democratic Party can dismiss the names of Trump’s candidates in the appointment of Supreme Court judges. And it can put pressure on Trump by starting a re-investigation into allegations of presidential abuse.
Relations with the US Parliament will continue to be important for India. Because the US Parliament has the right to veto any important policy decision. Traditionally, the US Parliament has been playing the role of a medium in relations with India. When the relations between India and the United States deteriorated in the 1980s, or after the 1998 nuclear tests, many US lawmakers called for improving relations with India. Along with this, when the relations between the two countries were good, the US Congress always viewed it with skepticism. For example, when George W. Bush entered into a civil nuclear deal with India, the US Parliament’s stance was strong towards India. Despite all this, this year’s US Parliament elections, especially the extremely modest balancing Senate elections, will be directly related to India’s interests, as is associated with presidential elections.
