Has the opposition really united against Modi?

Sometimes a tractor, sometimes a bicycle, sometimes a snack, sometimes a discussion on tea. These days Congress leader Rahul Gandhi seems to be more active in politics than ever before.

On Tuesday, he discussed national issues with MPs of opposition parties over breakfast.

He also went to the Parliament House by bicycle with the opposition MPs to speak on the rising inflation.

When the Congress’s Twitter handle posted a picture of them having breakfast with the opposition, it was captioned, “Our country, our people, our priority. Congress party and opposition are united to keep India ahead.”

When Rahul Gandhi posted a picture of cycling against inflation on Twitter, he wrote, “Neither our faces are necessary, nor our names. It is only important that we are people’s representatives – in every face, crores of people of the country.” There are faces who are troubled by inflation. These are the good days?”

In both the tweets, two messages are clear for the ruling party and the public – one is the opposition united and the other face is not necessary nor name is necessary.

There is a lot of discussion in the political circles that just before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the opposition has already started preparing against the Modi government three years ago.

But will calling all the opposition parties together for tea-snack, posing for photographs, going to Parliament by bicycle – all these will unite the opposition?

Is it that easy? And if it is difficult, what are the obstacles along the way?

Whose leadership?

Neerja Chaudhary has been in journalism for the last four decades. He has seen many governments rise and fall before him.

He says, “Having breakfast together, cycling, are new ideas. But the opposition has a long way to go to ‘unify’. The most important question is going to be of leadership. After all, under whose leadership will it unite? Who will be that face? Will Rahul be that face? And will Rahul’s leadership be accepted by regional parties?”

Here are some more facts which need to be considered.

Mamta Banerjee was also on Delhi tour recently. He has also met Rahul and Sonia. She was asked a clear question on whether she would lead the opposition, but she did not give a direct answer.

Sharad Pawar is also seen making an effort to bring the opposition parties together. A meeting has also been held at his house, in which not many leaders had reached.

Om Prakash Chautala has also started the raga of the Third Front. Recently, he met Nitish Kumar at lunch, which has made a lot of headlines.

Rahul Gandhi had also sent an invitation for breakfast to 16 opposition parties, but Bahujan Samaj Party and Aam Aadmi Party did not participate in it.

Along with the parties of Mamta Banerjee, Sharad Pawar, 14 parties like Shiv Sena, DMK, CPI-M, CPI, RJD, Samajwadi Party, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, Jammu and Kashmir National Conference, IUML, RSP accepted their invitation.

Neerja says, “Get the entire opposition together. Before the 2024 elections, it seems a bit difficult. Some parties like to call themselves neutral. Which gives support based on issues to the BJP, but not completely with anyone. Like Naveen Patnaik, Jagan Reddy, KCR.”

These are the reasons why questions are being raised about leadership in the unity of the opposition. BJP is also attacking the opposition on the same question.

However, a reply has been given by Shiv Sena MP Priyanka Chaturvedi. During the debate in a private TV channel, he said, “In a democracy like India, a face is not needed, issues matter here.” However, he did not give a direct answer to the question whether Rahul’s leadership would be accepted by Shiv Sena or not.

Solidarity on issues?

Therefore, in the unity of the opposition, now let’s talk about the issues.

Congress MP Ravneet Bittu and Akali Dal MP Harsimrat Kaur Badal were seen arguing with each other inside the Parliament premises a day after the breakfast party. The issue was the new agricultural law. The video of the debate between the two is becoming very viral on social media.

Senior journalist Arvind Mohan says, “Most opposition parties are opposing the government on the agriculture bill. They are also together in protest on this issue. But no opposition has ever openly told that if they come to power, then the new agricultural What will we do on the law? Will we take them back or change them or bring a law on MSP?”

Arvind Mohan believes that the opposition is definitely looking more united than before, but even this will not work. Only Modi has to be removed – this agenda will not work. The opposition needs concrete issues and a clear stand on them.

He explains his point by giving an example of oil prices.

“UPA linked oil prices to the market price during its tenure. Those prices have definitely increased during the BJP’s tenure. The government has also earned a lot from it. But what will be the clear stand of the opposition alliance on this? The parties did not say clearly.” This clarity on issues is the need of the hour for the unity of the opposition.

What will happen in the assembly elections?

There is also a third problem here. That is the effect in the state elections.

Although Akali Dal leaders were not seen in Rahul Gandhi’s breakfast party, but one thing came out clearly from the debate of Ravneet Bittu and Harsimrat Kaur Badal that even if there is an opinion on the issues at the national level, then at the state level. what will happen?

Congress is also opposing the new agriculture law and Akali Dal is also opposing it. Both can be one on this issue. But elections are going to be held in Punjab next year. What will be the stand of both the parties there? Won’t these parties fight against each other there?

Same is the situation in Uttar Pradesh. Will Congress and Samajwadi Party fight together in the assembly elections to be held there next year? Whereas Samajwadi Party leader Akhilesh Yadav has clearly said that he will tie up with smaller parties in the assembly elections and not with big parties.

In such a situation, the oxygen that the opposition got after the defeat of the BJP in the West Bengal elections, may not be given to the BJP again in Uttar Pradesh in the form of oxygen victory. This is the third reason about which analysts are not yet completely convinced about the ‘opposition solidarity’.

Increasing confidence of the opposition

But Rashid Kidwai, who has written several books on the Congress, says that despite all the contradictions, the opposition is now more confident and more confident than before.

Rasheed says, “We have seen in history, whenever such governments that have been around personalities and their downfall has started, then only coalition governments have come to the center. Like Indira Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi, PV Narasimha Rao, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, after all such leaders sat on the post of Prime Minister in India, who led the ‘Khichdi’ government. Because of this, a coalition government can be formed if the current government is ousted from power. This possibility cannot be ruled out. If Rahul has breakfast with 14 parties, then there is a possibility in that too.”

Rashid Kidwai says about Rahul Gandhi, “Rahul Gandhi has not been presented as a candidate for the post of Prime Minister yet, declared or undeclared. There is a reason behind this. There is no greed in him to become the Prime Minister himself. He still has the ‘age’.”

Rashid further says, “Rahul Gandhi’s thinking for the Congress is that until the party does not win ‘half of half’ seats on its own, there is no question of leadership. Leadership happens by itself.”

‘Half of half’ means that the majority figure is 272 to come to power, then the Congress will not play the bet of the leadership of the coalition until it wins half of 272 i.e. around 136 seats.

But Rashid also says that in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, in the present condition, the Congress has brought around 130 seats, it seems a bit difficult. Because of this, whether Mamata Banerjee or Sharad Pawar, he is in a way confident about the Congress that there will be no problem in the unity of the opposition on the matter of leadership.

From this perspective, opposition unity has possibilities as well as complications.