Republican Party President Donald Trump is challenging Democratic Party presidential candidate Joe Biden.
Joe Biden is better known as the Vice President of former President Barack Obama. Although Biden has been active in American politics since the 1970s.
As the polling day gets closer, the poll survey companies are trying to understand the mood of the people by asking people about the candidate of their choice before the real results.
We will keep an eye on all these surveys before the elections. Our effort will be to find out that through these opinion polls, we can detect the trend of the election. We will also try to know what these polls can and cannot tell about the mood of the American public.
What impression are both presidential candidates leaving at the national level?
Opinion polls at the national level in the United States are a good way to find out how popular a candidate is in the entire country. But, the point to note here is that this does not indicate the real results of the presidential election.
For instance, in almost all pre-election polls at the national level in 2016, Hillary Clinton was ahead of Donald Trump by nearly 3 million votes.
But, when the real results came, she was defeated by Trump. This happened because America has an electoral college system. Therefore, despite winning more votes of the people, if a president wins the election, it is not necessary.
If this condition is removed, Joe Biden has been ahead of President Donald Trump in most of this year’s national surveys. Talking about the recent weeks, Biden seems to be getting the support of about 50 percent of the voters.
He is getting at least 8 points lead in these opinion polls on President Trump. But, Donald Trump’s US presidential election in the last few days 2020: Trump ahead or Biden? The number of supporters has also increased.
Who is ahead in national surveys?
Democrats Biden 51%
Republicans Trump 43%
In comparison, these polls were not going to give such clear results in 2016. At that time, a difference of few points was seen between Donald Trump and his rival Hillary Clinton. Particularly as the elections came closer, the competition had become very close in the polls.
As was anticipated after losing the election to Hillary Clinton in 2016. The number of votes a candidate wins is less important. The real thing that determines the outcome, is that from which state they get these votes.
Most states vote the same way in every presidential election. This means that there are few states where there is a possibility of a candidate winning. These are the states that decide who will win and lose in the presidential election. They are called Battleground States in American politics ..
Under the electoral college system that America chooses as its president, every American state is given electoral college votes according to its population. The electoral college in the country has 538 votes. Therefore, to win the presidential election it is necessary for any candidate to win 270 votes from the Electoral College.
Who is ahead in the battleground states?
At the moment, Joe Biden is looking to gain an edge in the battleground states. But, there is still plenty of time in the actual voting. And things can change very quickly. Especially if and when we know that there are candidates like Donald Trump in the election field.
As polls indicate, Joe Biden has the edge over Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In 2016, Trump had barely won Hillary Clinton in these industrialized states. In these states, he got only one percent (or even less) more votes than Hillary.
But, it is worth noting that in 2016, Donald Trump won a huge victory in these battleground states. And in today’s date, his electoral team will be worried more about this.
In 2016, Trump’s odds of winning in Iowa, Ohio and Texas were 8–10 percent. But, this time, at least at the moment, there is a fierce competition between Trump and Joe Biden in these three states.
These results of the poll itself understand why Trump had changed the team manager of the campaign to win his re-election in July. And they repeatedly call these surveys ‘fake polls’.
However, as far as the speculative market is concerned, there is still no bet on Trump’s defeat. According to the present sentiment, even now, with one vote against the three stakes, they are assuming that on November 3, Trump will win the presidential election.
Has the outbreak of the Corona virus affected Trump’s popularity?
The corona virus epidemic has been in the news in the US since the beginning of this year. And there seems to be a split on the American Janata Party line about President Trump’s methods of dealing with it.
When Trump announced a national emergency in the middle of March, he announced $ 50 billion in aid to states to prevent the outbreak of the virus. Then his step was appreciated by about 55 percent of Americans. His Was supported.
But since then, at least the supporters of the Democratic Party do not appear to stand with him in this matter. However, supporters of the Republican Party stand firm with their president in the Corona virus case.
However, the most recent poll to show American public opinion about dealing with the Corona virus says that now President Trump’s supporters have also started questioning their modalities.
Because, the southern and western states of America have to deal with the outbreak of this epidemic again. In the early weeks of July, Trump’s support of the Republican supporters in this case also came down to 78 percent.
It is only from these statistics that we understand why President Trump is not giving a lot of hopeful statements about the outbreak of Corona virus in recent times. Rather, they are warning that ‘things can get worse before things get better in America’.
Recently, Trump was first seen in public with a face mask. Not only this, Trump also appealed to the American people to wear masks, because ‘it will have a good effect’ and this is ‘patriotism’.
According to a recent model prepared by Washington University experts, by November 1, just two days before the voting in the US, more than 2,30,000 people will have died due to corona virus in America.
Can we trust these polls / surveys?
It is very easy to dismiss these opinion polls that are happening before the election, saying that in the 2016 elections, these polls were proved absolutely wrong. President Trump repeatedly claims the same. However, this is not entirely true.
Most national surveys in 2016 showed Hillary Clinton ahead by a few percentage points. However, this does not mean that he was wrong. This is evident from the fact that Hillary Clinton had garnered 30 lakh more votes than Trump.
However, there was some trouble with the opinion poll pollsters in 2016. These surveys did not show proper representation of voters without a college degree.
This meant that Trump’s rise in many battleground states was not recorded in these opinion polls for long. And in some opinion polls, the representation of these supporters of Trump was not recorded till the end. But, most of the polling companies have rectified this deficiency this time.
But, there is more uncertainty in this year’s US presidential election than last time. This is due to the corona virus epidemic and its impact on the economy.
Now it can not be guessed exactly how and how much the corona virus outbreak will affect people’s voting pattern in November. That is why it would be better to see all these opinion polls happening in America before the elections with some degree of skepticism. Especially when the elections are three months away.