COVID-19: 10 to 20 Times More Deadlier Than You Think!
By now, you have probably heard of COVID-19 or Coronavirus disease that broke out in 2019 in China which caused a global pandemic, 185 countries have cases of COVID-19, more than 31,93,886 million people have now been infected globally, hundreds of thousands have already died and it continues to change the very fabric of modern life.
As the virus spreads, the global economy is also shutting down and it is unlike anything you and I or anyone has ever seen, the swiftness and severity of the shock to the global economy that is absolutely unprecedented, economists estimate that the pandemic will cost multi-trillion dollars to the world economy.
This financial crisis is both different and worse because first and foremost it is a health crisis and it appears we cannot fix the economy that is like trying to fix your house while it’s still on fire. If we don’t try to control this spread of coronavirus then the suffering would be much bigger.
A lot of our visitors were constantly probing us about the positive change we foresee in the upcoming days as the number of cases continued to rise in the past and if we don’t contain COVID-19 and the pressure that puts on the hospitals so the nations right now trying to flatten the curve by locking down and enforcing social distancing but that has consequences, the more aggressively we try to slow down the spread and save lives the deeper the recession.
Amid Crises, Here Are Some Good News!
First time, this week an encouraging figure that surfaced showing a combination of severe restriction and critical care is starting to have an impact on bringing the daily new cases down especially in Europe brings a new ray of hope that good things are coming!
Recently France, Germany, Italy, Belgium, and the Netherlands have shown improvement to have brought new cases down to an average of below 1027. While Denmark, Norway, Switzerland, and Austria have got it down below 99.
Germany and Italy still seemed to struggle to keep the disease under control and somehow managed to hold new cases below 2100 a day, while Spain is below 4800, second to the USA and the UK remains troubled in Western Europe, yet to show any real improvement. It has now got 165,221confirmed cases.
Meanwhile, let’s take a look where India stands globally as we are already officially in stage three which is community transmission and the total cases rise to over 33050 and the death toll currently stands at 1074.
No doubt, India’s aggressive measures have so far managed to slow the spread of the disease considering its large population but even if you get a current outbreak and pandemic down this virus will still be with us and we need to be on guard and defending ourselves with high alert for the foreseeable future.
Main sources: national health services, World Health Organisation and sometimes from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
COVID-19 Is Not A Holiday That Is over, Danger Is Not Averted Yet!
However, the above statistics have shown some slightest improvement and many researchers have predicted Covid-19 pandemic will end in early December this year, however we should not forget that this prediction is only theoretical and suitable for one-stage epidemic and it is also conditioned by the quality of data.
The truth is we could not predict the Covid-19 outbreak in October or November 2019 and the future is always uncertain therefore we need to be cautious as this battle against COVID-19 is not over and seems a long way to go as the new study reveals and compels not to draw any conclusion in haste, let’s find out why?
Nature Of The Virus:
COVID-19 is a contagious disease, the average number of people that one person with a virus infects, based on the R0 scale that is 5.7, according to a new study published online in Emerging Infectious Diseases. That’s about double an earlier R0 estimate of 2.2 to 3.
R0 is the abbreviation of R-nought, is a disease’s “basic reproduction number”, for example, if a disease has an R0 of up to 5.7 means a person who has the disease will transmit it to an average of 5-6 other people in the first round. That replication will continue if no one has been vaccinated against the disease or is already immune to it in their community. And in ten rounds it would possibly infect over 3600 people.
However, getting infected by someone depends on a lot of different factors that can be tough to estimate, factors like contact rate vary from patient to patient, while some patients stay at home and some go out in the public and transmission of the disease is more likely to spread fast from person to person if people are vulnerable to the disease means no vaccination was done in the past, no one ever had the disease and no way to control the spread of the disease.
However, with today’s strict lockdown conditions and medical advancement above conditions are less likely to meet and now we are able to contain and cure most diseases that were deadly in the past but the trouble is with the COVID-19 is to know how long it takes you to feel sick. From the moment you are infected from the COVID-19, it usually takes 5 days before you start to feel symptoms. But it can take as long as 14 or even 15days. This is the incubation period: the time between you catch it, and when you first realize you are sick.
You can be contagious and spreading it around for several days, and up to two to three weeks, before even occurs to you that you’re sick. And that leads to the next big difference. NO human immune system had encountered this virus before. Nobody has a natural immunity to it and when one person is contagious with the flu, they can only spread it to people who aren’t immune.
COVID-19 Is A Brand New Threat!
None of us ever had it before and there is no vaccine which means we all are vulnerable to the disease. Nearly everyone on the planet is susceptible. So when a contagious person, who may not even know they’re infected, comes into contact with others, it can spread like wildfire. And then you see how much more dangerous COVID-19 can be.
And we are still learning about COVID-19’s fatality rate, but scientists think its somewhere between 1 and 3 %. According to Dr. Anthony Fauci, the US’s leading infectious disease expert the flu has the mortality of 0.1% and COVID-19 has the mortality of 10 times that and people with the compromised immune system it can be way higher.
Remember, What Is So Different About COVID-19 And Why We Should Take It Seriously?
· The Infectiousness.
· How hard it is to know you have it.
· How susceptible we all are to it.
Estimates vary, but some scientists have warned that between 20 % and 60% of the world’s population could become infected with the virus. Because COVID-19 has no cure, no vaccine the only defence we have against it is social distancing. We can take ourselves out of the chain – not with immunity, but with social distancing. Just physically not being around with anyone, and staying home as much as possible. But that only works if each of us takes it seriously.
Some people are seen now and then to make it seem small by going out in the lockdown or not following through the advice of medical professionals to maintain social distancing that is the only key to keep themselves safe and others too.
They need to understand how bad the situation is that they need to be vigilant and then use their vigilance for useful actions.
For now, stay at home, stay safe.
We will keep you updated!
